साभार बी स
Historical Overview
India's missile programs can be roughly divided into five phases. During the first phase (1958-1970), India's missile ambitions were confined to building a first-generation anti-tank missile (ATGM) and developing a three-ton thrust, liquid-fueled rocket engine most likely based on the Soviet SA-2 sustainer motor. Both projects were undertaken by the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) with the objective of gaining scientific expertise and creating a technological infrastructure to eventually build modern missiles indigenously; there were no plans for the immediate serial production of missile systems. However, the DRDO's technical and organizational shortcomings, opposition from the armed services, and weak support from politicians and civilian bureaucrats in the federal government resulted in the failure and ultimate termination of both projects.[4]
Phase II of India's missile program spans the decade of the 1970s. During this period, the DRDO undertook two significant projects. The first, Project Devil, was an attempt to "reverse-engineer" the Soviet SA-2 surface-to-air missile (SAM). The second, Project Valiant, was an ambitious attempt to develop a 1,500 kilometer (km)-range ballistic missile. Design competence and political symbolism were the primary objectives of both projects. However, India lacked the scientific, engineering, and industrial base to build a long-range ballistic missile. Due to faltering progress, the Indian government terminated the Valiant program in 1974. Project Devil, however, proved to be a partial success. Although Indian engineers were unable to reverse-engineer the SA-2 missile system entirely, they apparently succeeded in developing two solid-fuel boosters and a three-ton, liquid-sustainer engine for the Devil missile.[5]
The Indian government revived the flailing missile program in 1980 and in 1983 launched the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) to develop a family of strategic and tactical guided missiles. The IGMDP involved the development of two strategic ballistic missile systems: two variants of a short-range ballistic missile (Prithvi), and a medium-range technology demonstrator (Agni). Under the program, the DRDO also sought to develop medium- and short-range SAMs (Akash and Trishul), and a third-generation ATGM (Nag). The years 1980-1994, the third phase in India's missile program, marked a crucial turning point. During this period, India's forays into missile building were transformed from exercises in technology-gathering, reverse-engineering, and design competence into a full-fledged program to build a series of operational missile systems. By 1996-1997, the successful development of the Prithvi-I (150km-range) provided India with the technical option to deploy a limited nuclear strike capability against Pakistan. Similarly, two successful flight-tests of the 1,400km-range Agni missile validated India's "re-entry vehicle" technology. The Agni program thus served as a building block for the design and development of longer-range ballistic missile systems—systems that would provide India with a nuclear-strike capability against China in the future.[6]
The fourth phase of India's strategic missile program stretches from the mid-1990s until 2000. This phase was characterized by the partial success of IGMDP, and limited serial production of the Prithvi and Agni ballistic missiles. As a result of the armed services commitment to purchase indigenous missile systems, the DRDO shifted its focus from technology demonstration to modifying missile systems to meet the field requirements of the user in terms of deployment and operability. Capitalizing on its successes with the Prithvi and Agni, the DRDO embarked on programs to develop shorter- and longer-range versions of the Agni (Agni-II and Agni-III), a supersonic cruise missile (BrahMos) with Russian collaboration, and a naval variant of the Prithvi (Dhanush). The DRDO also began developing a sea-launched ballistic missile, the Sagarika, which is expected to become operational by 2010. In addition, India has sought U.S., Russian and Israeli collaboration in the development of an anti-tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) system.[7]
During the fifth phase, which roughly stretches from 2001 until the present, DRDO has sought to improve the performance of the ballistic missiles developed during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Key initiatives in this phase include the incorporation of features to improve the "hit to kill" capabilities of the missiles and the use of newer and lighter materials in the construction of the missile systems.[8] Among other priorities are projects to manufacture BrahMos variants for the different services; the hypersonic variant of the BrahMos; the development of "smart" missiles that are smaller, lighter, more agile, and capable of more accurately homing on targets; and the development of hypersonic vehicles, nanotechnologies, homing guidance, very large systems integration, miniaturized electro-mechanical systems, system on chip, and newer materials such as ceramics and lightweight composites.[9] The DRDO has also made some progress building its anti-ballistic missile capability.
Indian defense planners are also looking toward introducing basic changes in the missile development process. In January 2008, the Indian government announced that the IGMDP would end by the close of the year.[2][3] The focus will now be on serial production of the missiles that are part of the program and for some specific missile systems, foreign collaboration will be considered.[3]
Current Development / Operational Status of Strategic Missile Programs
Prithvi
Developmental work on the single-stage, liquid-engine Prithvi ballistic missile started in the early 1980s.[10] Flight-tests of the 150km-range/1,000 kilogram (kg)-payload, army-version of the missile (Prithvi-I/SS-150) began in 1987[11] and lasted until late 1993. Subsequent to user trials with the Indian Army in 1994, the missile entered serial production at Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh).[12] Special missile groups under the Strategic Forces Command have been raised for the Prithvi-I, the 333, 444, and 555 missile groups.[108] During peacetime, the missiles and their support equipment are reportedly stored in Secunderabad, Jalandhar (Punjab), and Jammu (Jammu &Kashmir).[13] As of 2009, less than 50 Prithvi-I launchers have been deployed, although the army's originally placed order stands at 75 missiles.[108][100]
Flight-tests of the 250km-range/500kg-payload, Indian Air Force (IAF)-version of the Prithvi (Prithvi-2/SS-250) started in 1993.[16] The IAF subsequently inducted the Prithvi-II in 2004.[17] Nevertheless, some reports in 2005 stated that the IAF was not too keen on the Prithvi-II and favored acquisition of an air-launched version of the BrahMos.[18] The IAF's two missile squadrons—one of which may be called the 2203 Squadron—are reportedly based in Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh).[19] However, the missiles will be moved closer to the border with Pakistan during a crisis or war. The IAF's Prithvi-II inventory is estimated at 25, although IAF's slated order is for a total of 63 such missiles.[20] [100]
The army's variant of the Prithvi-II was test-fired in May 2008 for the first time since the missile was handed over to the army in 2006.[17][21] This test was also the first with an extended range of 350 km for the army version.[17] Since then, the army's Prithvi-II was most recently tested twice on October 12, 2009 and previously in April 2009, as part of user trials by army units under the Strategic Forces Command.[99, 101] The army has ordered 62 Prithvi-II missiles.[100]
The third variant of this missile is the Prithvi-III, versions of which have been referred to variously as Dhanush, Sagarika, and K-15 (The K-15/Sagarika is now understood to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile). In 1998, the DRDO had announced that it was developing a 350km-range, naval-version of the Prithvi (Dhanush/SS-350).[23] The first test of the Dhanush in April 2000 ended in failure.[24] However, after two subsequent successful tests, the DRDO declared in September 2002 that Dhanush was "ready for induction after successful trials at sea."[25] In October 2004, DRDO conducted the first successful underwater launch of the Dhanush from an especially designed canister placed in an artificial body of water.[26][27]
The DRDO also declared a subsequent off-shore flight-test of the Dhanush in November 2004 from the INS Subhadra a success.[28] The fourth test of the Dhanush took place in March 2007.[123] The navy has ordered this missile for the INS Subhadra and the INS Suvarna.[100]
Prithvi also has a role in India's pursuit of an anti-ballistic missile capability. Variants of the Prithvi, including the Prithvi-II, were used in "attacker" and "interceptor" mode in the tests of India's fledgling anti-ballistic missile system in November 2006, December 2007, and March 2009.[30] [124]
The Prithvi is mainly a Pakistan-specific missile system and has reportedly been configured for nuclear delivery. [If the Sagarika or Dhanush or the K-15 are versions of the Prithvi-III, then this missile would form the mainstay of India's submarine launched ballistic missile arsenal, which has China as its primary focus as part of New Delhi's quest for a triad of delivery systems.] In addition, the DRDO has designed a variety of conventional warheads for use in different battlefield support roles. The Indian government is believed to have upgraded the alert status of some nuclear-capable Prithvi missile units during the Kargil war with Pakistan (May-July 1999),[31] and during the Indo-Pakistani military standoff that lasted from December 2001 until October 2002.[32] Reports in 2003, however, stated that the Indian government no longer planned to use the Prithvi as a nuclear delivery system. Instead the missiles would be armed with conventional warheads and be used as long-range artillery to attack Pakistan's strategic and theater reserves.[33] However, as of 2008, the Prithvi-I and the Prithvi-III both remained part of India's existing and proposed nuclear delivery systems.[34][35]
Agni
In the early 1980s, the hybrid, two-stage (solid-motor/liquid-engine) Agni was conceived as a "technology demonstrator" (TD) to test propulsion, staging, and re-entry technologies for applications in medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missile systems. Work on the 1,200-1,500km-range/1,000kg-payload Agni TD most likely began in 1983. Between 1989 and 1994, the DRDO conducted three developmental flight-tests, of which two were successful.[36] Although flight-tests were suspended between 1995 and 1998, research and development on an improved variant continued uninterrupted.[37] Testing was revived in 1999.[38] Between April 1999 and August 2004, the DRDO conducted three successful developmental flight tests of the rail-/road-mobile, two-stage, all solid-fueled, 2,000-2,500km-range/1,000kg-payload Agni-II.[39]
In 1999, the Indian government approved the development of a rail-/road-mobile, single-stage, solid-motor, 700-800km-range/1,000kg-payload variant of the Agni missile. This variant, which was later dubbed the "Agni-I," was conceived as a bridge between the short-range Prithvi and the longer-range Agni-TD and Agni-II ballistic missiles. Between January 2002 and June 2004, the short-range variant of the Agni was successfully tested three times.[40] Although the Indian government stated in 2006 that the Agni I & II have been inducted into the armed forces, it is unclear to what extent they have actually been operationalized [87], with an Indian news report in October 2009 also stating that the Agni-I and Agni-II were yet to be inducted.[100] The Agni-II was most recently tested in May 2009, and included a new high-accuracy navigation system.[110]
After years of rumors that a test of the 3,000-4,000 km-range variant of the Agni ballistic missile, the Agni III, was imminent, India finally flight-tested the missile on 9 July 2006. However, the missile, which is 16 meters tall, weighs 48 tons, and can deliver a 1.5 ton warhead, failed within 50 seconds of launch. DRDO officials initially suggested that the failure likely resulted due to separation problems between the two-stage missile's first and second stages.[42] Subsequently, the Agni-III was successfully tested in April 2007 and May 2008. According to a senior defense scientist, a "truly deliverable version" was tested in May 2008 and that the missile was ready for induction into the armed forces.[44] Reports in 2009 said that the Agni-III would be tested in July that year, but no such test took place at that time.[107]
The Agni missiles have been designed and developed for delivering nuclear munitions. Despite earlier suggestions of the Agni's potential conventional role, this is now unlikely for reasons of cost-effectiveness and accuracy.[46] The Agni-I will most probably replace the Prithvi for nuclear-targeting missions against Pakistan. Although the longer-range variants of the Agni will be capable of targeting Pakistan as well (the Agni-I, with its 700 km range is probably Pakistan-specific), they are primarily being developed to give India a nuclear deterrent capability against China.[45]
Reports in May 2008 stated that the Indian government has given the go-ahead to develop the Agni-V missile, with a range of 5,500 km.[47] [48] [102] The missile will be tested by December 2010, according to the DRDO.[102] With the Agni-V, India will be able to credibly target parts of northeastern China (including Beijing) from launchers that do not necessarily have to be located close to the border with China. The Agni-V was not part of the original IGMDP which provided the framework for India's missile development plans since 1983.[47] The missile will involve adding a third stage to the two-stage Agni-III. The Agni-V will be solid-fuelled and canister-launched to allow flexible options in terms of launching it from most parts of India.[102, 103]
The Agni-V is also slated to be equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), although this would require several years of extensive testing.[106] MIRVs are considered essential toward strengthening the credibility of New Delhi's second-strike capability as it would increase its ability to inflict unacceptable damage on the adversary after absorbing the adversary's first-strike.[106]
BrahMos
Increasingly, a key component of India's missile force is the BrahMos cruise missile. This is a 280-300km-range/200-300kg-payload, supersonic cruise missile developed by a partnership with the Russian entity, NPO Mashinostroyeniye. The partnership BrahMos Aersopace. was registered in 1995, and joint development work on the missile began in 1998.[50] Derived from the Russian anti-ship missile called the Yakhont, the BrahMos is a dual-mode cruise missile, with its primary mode as an anti-ship missile, with a backup capability to attack shore-based, radio-contrast targets. The missile features a two-stage propulsion system employing a solid propellant booster with a liquid ramjet engine. Russia is believed to be primarily responsible for the propulsion system and systems integration, while India has responsibility for the on-board guidance system.[51] The missile was tested several times between June 2001 and November 2004.[55] During two tests conducted in November 2003 and 2004 respectively, the missile was successfully used to destroy a moving target from a warship at sea.[56] The missile is now in serial production.
The BrahMos was originally planned for a coastal defense (land-to-ship) role but in recent years it has been tasked with multiple objectives — Navy (ship-to-ship) and Army (land-to-land). In addition, work continues on submarine-launch and air-to-air versions.[57] Developmental flight tests of the naval variant of the BrahMos were reportedly completed in 2004.[58] The missile has since been inducted into the Navy.
In March 2008, the Indian government conducted the first test of the naval version of the BrahMos against a land target, confirming its sea-to-land attack capability.[59] Subsequently, the naval variant was tested in December 2008 in a vertical launch configuration.[112] The DRDO is also developing a submarine-launch version and an air-to-air version of the BrahMos. For these versions, the Navy's Kilo-class submarines and the Air Force's Sukhoi aircraft are likely to be used.[61] According to the DRDO, the air force version of the missile will be inducted in 2012, with flight trials to strike the target commencing in 2011.[116]
India is also developing an Army variant of the missile. India conducted two successful tests of the Army variant in June and December 2004[63], and the Army began to take delivery of the missile in June 2007. Two regiments of the army have been equipped with the "Block-I" version of the BrahMos.[113] A "Block-II" variant was tested four times in January-March and July 2009, with the latter three tests being successful.[114, 115, 117] Advanced seeker software on the Block-II variant seeks to increase the accuracy of the missile by enabling it to select the required target from among other, smaller targets.[113, 117] Following the tests in the first half of 2009, this variant is ready for induction into the army.[117]
India and Russia have also agreed to develop a hypersonic version of the BrahMos, termed BrahMos-II, by 2015.[118] This version will be based on a scramjet engine.[118] Reports in May 2008 also stated that the DRDO is developing a hypersonic (i.e., with a speed of over Mach 5) missile that can also be used as a long-range cruise missile.[65] The project, termed the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV) project is being developed in collaboration with the Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI).[66]
India and Russia have announced plans to export the BrahMos to friendly "third countries" with mutual consent. In 2004, BrahMos Aerospace Ltd. had signed an agreement with Russia's main arms export agency—Rosoboronexport—to market the missile in the international market.[69] Production facilities for the BrahMos are being established in India and Russia; 20 Indian and 10 Russian companies are expected to participate in its manufacture.[68] About 14 countries have been identified by BrahMos Aerospace as potential buyers of the missile.[116]
Nirbhay
In July 2007, Indian defense scientists announced the proposed development of a new cruise missile system, the Nirbhay (Fearless). Nirbhay will be a 1,000 km-range subsonic cruise missile that can be deployed on multiple platforms.[70] A technology demonstrator is scheduled to be completed in early 2009. With its terrain-hugging capability, the missile would be able to avoid detection ground radar.[70]
K-15 (Sagarika)
In February 2008, India tested its K-15 submarine-launched ballistic missile from a submerged pontoon in the Bay of Bengal. This missile had been tested four times previously, although with very little publicity.[71] Subsequently, in November 2008, the K-15 was successfully tested from a land-based launcher.[120] The K-15 (previously called the Sagarika or "Oceanic") will be stationed on India's new nuclear-powered submarine, INS Arihant, which was launched for trials in July 2009.[111]
The K-15 is a two-stage missile that weighs about 7 tons and can carry nuclear warheads that weight up to 600 kg over a range of about 700 km.[71] [75] [120] The Sagarika program is believed to be driven by India's long-term goals to achieve a secure sea-based, second-strike nuclear capability.
Shourya
The 'Shourya' (Valor), is a land-version of the K-15 Sagarika submarine-launched ballistic missile, and can carry a warhead of over 500 kg across a range of 600 km and is meant to strengthen India's second-strike capability.[104] The missile was successfully tested in November 2008.[119] With the Shourya, Indian defense planners aim to achieve increased survivability of the country's nuclear arsenal. In this context, the Shourya is a solid-propellant, canister-based missile, which can be located in underground silos and could conceivably replace the liquid-propelled Prithvi missiles which have a maximum range of 350 km.[105]
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)
The Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has developed two UAVs, Lakshya and Nishant. According to news reports in February 2009, the Nishant is expected to be inducted into the Indian Army very soon.[121] An upgraded version of the Lakshya successfully completed its test flight in September 2008.[122]
The DRDO is also developing a medium-altitude, and long-endurance UAV, Rustom, which is slated to be completed by 2011.[109] The Rustom will have a range of 300 km and a payload capacity of 200 kg.[121]
Custody/Command and Control
India does not maintain a constituted nuclear force on a heightened state of alert. The nuclear-capable missiles, non-nuclear warhead assemblies, and fissile cores are maintained in a de-alerted state by the individual armed services, the DRDO, and the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), respectively, with plans to reconstitute them rapidly during an emergency or national crisis.[81]
After much debate, deliberations, and delay, the Indian government has entrusted operational control of India's nuclear missile force to the Indian Army. Although the Indian Air Force deploys an undisclosed number of nuclear-capable bombers and is actively planning to upgrade the air leg of the dyad, it has lost the inter-organizational battle with the Army for custody of India's nuclear missile force.[82]
Although the nuclear-capable missiles and aircraft are under the control of individual armed services, India's consolidated nuclear force is administered by a tri-service Strategic Forces Command (SFC).[83] Due to the delay in the appointment of the proposed Chief of Defense Staff (CDS), who will ultimately head a joint tri-service command, the commander-in-chief of the SFC currently reports to the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee. Ultimately, however, the SFC will report to the CDS, who will act as the "single-point" military advisor to the Indian government and act as the interface between the civilian executive and the armed services.[84]
At the level of the civilian executive, India's Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) is responsible for the management of its nuclear forces and for making all decisions pertaining to the use of nuclear weapons. The NCA is a two-layered structure. It comprises a Political Council (PC) and an Executive Council (EC). The PC is chaired by the prime minister and is the "sole body which can authorize the use of nuclear weapons." The decisions of the PC are conveyed to the EC, headed by the prime minister's National Security Advisor, who then interfaces with the SFC to execute the political directives of the PC.[85]
Import Dependency and Export Controls
After four decades of investments in its aerospace sector, India has succeeded in achieving a relatively high-degree of autonomy in the development, engineering, and manufacture of first-generation ballistic missiles. As a result, international "technology-denial" regimes can at best delay and add to the opportunity cost of India's ballistic missile programs. However, such regimes cannot disrupt them in the long term.
With the help of Western European and North American aerospace companies in the late 1960s and 1970s, the Indian government created an elaborate infrastructure for the development and manufacture of solid and liquid propellants, composites, structural materials, navigation, avionics, flight control, launch support equipment, computers, and software needed for civilian satellite launch vehicles. At about the same time, the Indian government also began creating an infrastructure for designing, developing, testing, and building guided missiles. This included "aerodynamic, structural, and environmental test facilities, liquid- and solid-propulsion test facilities, fabrication and engineering facilities, control, guidance, rubber, and computer facilities." [86]
After the launch of the IGMDP in 1983, the DRDO further expanded and refurbished these facilities, and gained competence in the areas of solid propellants, composites, and advanced metallurgy. In 1987, India's Defense Research and Development Laboratory inaugurated a new state-of-the-art facility for designing and building modern missiles at Imarat Kancha near Hyderabad. The new facility was named Research Center Imarat (RCI). In addition, India has built a dedicated test range on its east coast in Orissa (Chandipur-On-Sea) to test "long-range missiles, air defense missiles, high 'G' maneuverable missiles, weapon systems delivered by aircraft, and multi-target weapon systems." Range tracking and acquisition radars and some of the support equipment for this test range were imported from the United States and Russia in the 1980s and 1990s.[88]
Despite its emergence as a potential "second-tier" supplier state, India is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). New Delhi rejects participation in the MTCR on grounds that India is a victim of such technology-denial regimes, that such regimes are insensitive to India's national security needs, and they interfere with the peaceful uses of space technology. In the past, senior Indian defense officials such as Sivathanu Pillai and Dr. Abdul Kalam have expressed the view that Indian missile programs, both strategic and tactical, are not only aimed at providing the Indian military with weapon systems, but also to generate exports.[92] In 1994, the Indian defense ministry's Department of Defense Production and Supplies included the Prithvi in its catalogue of defense items available for export. Although no Prithvi exports have occurred to date, Indian defense officials have suggested that India may sell some of the missile's subsystems in the international market.[93] Indian and Russian officials have publicly expressed their intent to export the BrahMos/PJ-10 cruise missile to friendly "third countries" with mutual consent.[94]
But since the late 1990s, especially after the nuclear tests in May 1998 and the subsequent strategic dialogue with the United States, the Indian government has apparently resolved the internal debate on exports in favor of robust export controls on strategic nuclear, missile, and related dual-use goods and technologies.[95] However, the 2002 indictment of the Indian company NEC Engineers Private, Limited, for illegally exporting material and equipment that could be used in the manufacture of solid propellants for missiles to Iraq has raised doubts about the efficacy with which Indian export control regulations and laws are policed in practice
India views its nuclear weapons and long-range power
projection programs as the key to maintaining strategic stability in the
Asia-Pacific region, deterring Pakistan, safeguarding against potential
nuclear threats from China, and attaining great-power status. India's
strategic missile programs have matured to the extent that New Delhi can
now deploy short- and medium-range nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles in
an operational mode against Pakistan and China. Four decades of
investments in a missile-related design, development, and manufacturing
infrastructure have also made this sector less vulnerable to long-term
disruption by technology denial regimes. More significantly, India's
sophisticated civilian satellite launch capability makes it one of the
few developing states theoretically capable of building an
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) [1]
India continues its wide-ranging pursuit of ballistic and cruise
missile capabilities. It carried out two successful tests of its
3,000-3,500 km range Agni-III ballistic missile in April 2007 and May 2008, and successfully tested the K-15 (Sagarika) ballistic missile in February and November 2008. Apart from its ballistic missile arsenal, India has inducted the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, the product of an Indian-Russian joint venture.Historical Overview
India's missile programs can be roughly divided into five phases. During the first phase (1958-1970), India's missile ambitions were confined to building a first-generation anti-tank missile (ATGM) and developing a three-ton thrust, liquid-fueled rocket engine most likely based on the Soviet SA-2 sustainer motor. Both projects were undertaken by the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) with the objective of gaining scientific expertise and creating a technological infrastructure to eventually build modern missiles indigenously; there were no plans for the immediate serial production of missile systems. However, the DRDO's technical and organizational shortcomings, opposition from the armed services, and weak support from politicians and civilian bureaucrats in the federal government resulted in the failure and ultimate termination of both projects.[4]
Phase II of India's missile program spans the decade of the 1970s. During this period, the DRDO undertook two significant projects. The first, Project Devil, was an attempt to "reverse-engineer" the Soviet SA-2 surface-to-air missile (SAM). The second, Project Valiant, was an ambitious attempt to develop a 1,500 kilometer (km)-range ballistic missile. Design competence and political symbolism were the primary objectives of both projects. However, India lacked the scientific, engineering, and industrial base to build a long-range ballistic missile. Due to faltering progress, the Indian government terminated the Valiant program in 1974. Project Devil, however, proved to be a partial success. Although Indian engineers were unable to reverse-engineer the SA-2 missile system entirely, they apparently succeeded in developing two solid-fuel boosters and a three-ton, liquid-sustainer engine for the Devil missile.[5]
The Indian government revived the flailing missile program in 1980 and in 1983 launched the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) to develop a family of strategic and tactical guided missiles. The IGMDP involved the development of two strategic ballistic missile systems: two variants of a short-range ballistic missile (Prithvi), and a medium-range technology demonstrator (Agni). Under the program, the DRDO also sought to develop medium- and short-range SAMs (Akash and Trishul), and a third-generation ATGM (Nag). The years 1980-1994, the third phase in India's missile program, marked a crucial turning point. During this period, India's forays into missile building were transformed from exercises in technology-gathering, reverse-engineering, and design competence into a full-fledged program to build a series of operational missile systems. By 1996-1997, the successful development of the Prithvi-I (150km-range) provided India with the technical option to deploy a limited nuclear strike capability against Pakistan. Similarly, two successful flight-tests of the 1,400km-range Agni missile validated India's "re-entry vehicle" technology. The Agni program thus served as a building block for the design and development of longer-range ballistic missile systems—systems that would provide India with a nuclear-strike capability against China in the future.[6]
The fourth phase of India's strategic missile program stretches from the mid-1990s until 2000. This phase was characterized by the partial success of IGMDP, and limited serial production of the Prithvi and Agni ballistic missiles. As a result of the armed services commitment to purchase indigenous missile systems, the DRDO shifted its focus from technology demonstration to modifying missile systems to meet the field requirements of the user in terms of deployment and operability. Capitalizing on its successes with the Prithvi and Agni, the DRDO embarked on programs to develop shorter- and longer-range versions of the Agni (Agni-II and Agni-III), a supersonic cruise missile (BrahMos) with Russian collaboration, and a naval variant of the Prithvi (Dhanush). The DRDO also began developing a sea-launched ballistic missile, the Sagarika, which is expected to become operational by 2010. In addition, India has sought U.S., Russian and Israeli collaboration in the development of an anti-tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) system.[7]
During the fifth phase, which roughly stretches from 2001 until the present, DRDO has sought to improve the performance of the ballistic missiles developed during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Key initiatives in this phase include the incorporation of features to improve the "hit to kill" capabilities of the missiles and the use of newer and lighter materials in the construction of the missile systems.[8] Among other priorities are projects to manufacture BrahMos variants for the different services; the hypersonic variant of the BrahMos; the development of "smart" missiles that are smaller, lighter, more agile, and capable of more accurately homing on targets; and the development of hypersonic vehicles, nanotechnologies, homing guidance, very large systems integration, miniaturized electro-mechanical systems, system on chip, and newer materials such as ceramics and lightweight composites.[9] The DRDO has also made some progress building its anti-ballistic missile capability.
Indian defense planners are also looking toward introducing basic changes in the missile development process. In January 2008, the Indian government announced that the IGMDP would end by the close of the year.[2][3] The focus will now be on serial production of the missiles that are part of the program and for some specific missile systems, foreign collaboration will be considered.[3]
Current Development / Operational Status of Strategic Missile Programs
Prithvi
Developmental work on the single-stage, liquid-engine Prithvi ballistic missile started in the early 1980s.[10] Flight-tests of the 150km-range/1,000 kilogram (kg)-payload, army-version of the missile (Prithvi-I/SS-150) began in 1987[11] and lasted until late 1993. Subsequent to user trials with the Indian Army in 1994, the missile entered serial production at Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh).[12] Special missile groups under the Strategic Forces Command have been raised for the Prithvi-I, the 333, 444, and 555 missile groups.[108] During peacetime, the missiles and their support equipment are reportedly stored in Secunderabad, Jalandhar (Punjab), and Jammu (Jammu &Kashmir).[13] As of 2009, less than 50 Prithvi-I launchers have been deployed, although the army's originally placed order stands at 75 missiles.[108][100]
Flight-tests of the 250km-range/500kg-payload, Indian Air Force (IAF)-version of the Prithvi (Prithvi-2/SS-250) started in 1993.[16] The IAF subsequently inducted the Prithvi-II in 2004.[17] Nevertheless, some reports in 2005 stated that the IAF was not too keen on the Prithvi-II and favored acquisition of an air-launched version of the BrahMos.[18] The IAF's two missile squadrons—one of which may be called the 2203 Squadron—are reportedly based in Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh).[19] However, the missiles will be moved closer to the border with Pakistan during a crisis or war. The IAF's Prithvi-II inventory is estimated at 25, although IAF's slated order is for a total of 63 such missiles.[20] [100]
The army's variant of the Prithvi-II was test-fired in May 2008 for the first time since the missile was handed over to the army in 2006.[17][21] This test was also the first with an extended range of 350 km for the army version.[17] Since then, the army's Prithvi-II was most recently tested twice on October 12, 2009 and previously in April 2009, as part of user trials by army units under the Strategic Forces Command.[99, 101] The army has ordered 62 Prithvi-II missiles.[100]
The third variant of this missile is the Prithvi-III, versions of which have been referred to variously as Dhanush, Sagarika, and K-15 (The K-15/Sagarika is now understood to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile). In 1998, the DRDO had announced that it was developing a 350km-range, naval-version of the Prithvi (Dhanush/SS-350).[23] The first test of the Dhanush in April 2000 ended in failure.[24] However, after two subsequent successful tests, the DRDO declared in September 2002 that Dhanush was "ready for induction after successful trials at sea."[25] In October 2004, DRDO conducted the first successful underwater launch of the Dhanush from an especially designed canister placed in an artificial body of water.[26][27]
The DRDO also declared a subsequent off-shore flight-test of the Dhanush in November 2004 from the INS Subhadra a success.[28] The fourth test of the Dhanush took place in March 2007.[123] The navy has ordered this missile for the INS Subhadra and the INS Suvarna.[100]
Prithvi also has a role in India's pursuit of an anti-ballistic missile capability. Variants of the Prithvi, including the Prithvi-II, were used in "attacker" and "interceptor" mode in the tests of India's fledgling anti-ballistic missile system in November 2006, December 2007, and March 2009.[30] [124]
The Prithvi is mainly a Pakistan-specific missile system and has reportedly been configured for nuclear delivery. [If the Sagarika or Dhanush or the K-15 are versions of the Prithvi-III, then this missile would form the mainstay of India's submarine launched ballistic missile arsenal, which has China as its primary focus as part of New Delhi's quest for a triad of delivery systems.] In addition, the DRDO has designed a variety of conventional warheads for use in different battlefield support roles. The Indian government is believed to have upgraded the alert status of some nuclear-capable Prithvi missile units during the Kargil war with Pakistan (May-July 1999),[31] and during the Indo-Pakistani military standoff that lasted from December 2001 until October 2002.[32] Reports in 2003, however, stated that the Indian government no longer planned to use the Prithvi as a nuclear delivery system. Instead the missiles would be armed with conventional warheads and be used as long-range artillery to attack Pakistan's strategic and theater reserves.[33] However, as of 2008, the Prithvi-I and the Prithvi-III both remained part of India's existing and proposed nuclear delivery systems.[34][35]
Agni
In the early 1980s, the hybrid, two-stage (solid-motor/liquid-engine) Agni was conceived as a "technology demonstrator" (TD) to test propulsion, staging, and re-entry technologies for applications in medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missile systems. Work on the 1,200-1,500km-range/1,000kg-payload Agni TD most likely began in 1983. Between 1989 and 1994, the DRDO conducted three developmental flight-tests, of which two were successful.[36] Although flight-tests were suspended between 1995 and 1998, research and development on an improved variant continued uninterrupted.[37] Testing was revived in 1999.[38] Between April 1999 and August 2004, the DRDO conducted three successful developmental flight tests of the rail-/road-mobile, two-stage, all solid-fueled, 2,000-2,500km-range/1,000kg-payload Agni-II.[39]
In 1999, the Indian government approved the development of a rail-/road-mobile, single-stage, solid-motor, 700-800km-range/1,000kg-payload variant of the Agni missile. This variant, which was later dubbed the "Agni-I," was conceived as a bridge between the short-range Prithvi and the longer-range Agni-TD and Agni-II ballistic missiles. Between January 2002 and June 2004, the short-range variant of the Agni was successfully tested three times.[40] Although the Indian government stated in 2006 that the Agni I & II have been inducted into the armed forces, it is unclear to what extent they have actually been operationalized [87], with an Indian news report in October 2009 also stating that the Agni-I and Agni-II were yet to be inducted.[100] The Agni-II was most recently tested in May 2009, and included a new high-accuracy navigation system.[110]
After years of rumors that a test of the 3,000-4,000 km-range variant of the Agni ballistic missile, the Agni III, was imminent, India finally flight-tested the missile on 9 July 2006. However, the missile, which is 16 meters tall, weighs 48 tons, and can deliver a 1.5 ton warhead, failed within 50 seconds of launch. DRDO officials initially suggested that the failure likely resulted due to separation problems between the two-stage missile's first and second stages.[42] Subsequently, the Agni-III was successfully tested in April 2007 and May 2008. According to a senior defense scientist, a "truly deliverable version" was tested in May 2008 and that the missile was ready for induction into the armed forces.[44] Reports in 2009 said that the Agni-III would be tested in July that year, but no such test took place at that time.[107]
The Agni missiles have been designed and developed for delivering nuclear munitions. Despite earlier suggestions of the Agni's potential conventional role, this is now unlikely for reasons of cost-effectiveness and accuracy.[46] The Agni-I will most probably replace the Prithvi for nuclear-targeting missions against Pakistan. Although the longer-range variants of the Agni will be capable of targeting Pakistan as well (the Agni-I, with its 700 km range is probably Pakistan-specific), they are primarily being developed to give India a nuclear deterrent capability against China.[45]
Reports in May 2008 stated that the Indian government has given the go-ahead to develop the Agni-V missile, with a range of 5,500 km.[47] [48] [102] The missile will be tested by December 2010, according to the DRDO.[102] With the Agni-V, India will be able to credibly target parts of northeastern China (including Beijing) from launchers that do not necessarily have to be located close to the border with China. The Agni-V was not part of the original IGMDP which provided the framework for India's missile development plans since 1983.[47] The missile will involve adding a third stage to the two-stage Agni-III. The Agni-V will be solid-fuelled and canister-launched to allow flexible options in terms of launching it from most parts of India.[102, 103]
The Agni-V is also slated to be equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), although this would require several years of extensive testing.[106] MIRVs are considered essential toward strengthening the credibility of New Delhi's second-strike capability as it would increase its ability to inflict unacceptable damage on the adversary after absorbing the adversary's first-strike.[106]
BrahMos
Increasingly, a key component of India's missile force is the BrahMos cruise missile. This is a 280-300km-range/200-300kg-payload, supersonic cruise missile developed by a partnership with the Russian entity, NPO Mashinostroyeniye. The partnership BrahMos Aersopace. was registered in 1995, and joint development work on the missile began in 1998.[50] Derived from the Russian anti-ship missile called the Yakhont, the BrahMos is a dual-mode cruise missile, with its primary mode as an anti-ship missile, with a backup capability to attack shore-based, radio-contrast targets. The missile features a two-stage propulsion system employing a solid propellant booster with a liquid ramjet engine. Russia is believed to be primarily responsible for the propulsion system and systems integration, while India has responsibility for the on-board guidance system.[51] The missile was tested several times between June 2001 and November 2004.[55] During two tests conducted in November 2003 and 2004 respectively, the missile was successfully used to destroy a moving target from a warship at sea.[56] The missile is now in serial production.
The BrahMos was originally planned for a coastal defense (land-to-ship) role but in recent years it has been tasked with multiple objectives — Navy (ship-to-ship) and Army (land-to-land). In addition, work continues on submarine-launch and air-to-air versions.[57] Developmental flight tests of the naval variant of the BrahMos were reportedly completed in 2004.[58] The missile has since been inducted into the Navy.
In March 2008, the Indian government conducted the first test of the naval version of the BrahMos against a land target, confirming its sea-to-land attack capability.[59] Subsequently, the naval variant was tested in December 2008 in a vertical launch configuration.[112] The DRDO is also developing a submarine-launch version and an air-to-air version of the BrahMos. For these versions, the Navy's Kilo-class submarines and the Air Force's Sukhoi aircraft are likely to be used.[61] According to the DRDO, the air force version of the missile will be inducted in 2012, with flight trials to strike the target commencing in 2011.[116]
India is also developing an Army variant of the missile. India conducted two successful tests of the Army variant in June and December 2004[63], and the Army began to take delivery of the missile in June 2007. Two regiments of the army have been equipped with the "Block-I" version of the BrahMos.[113] A "Block-II" variant was tested four times in January-March and July 2009, with the latter three tests being successful.[114, 115, 117] Advanced seeker software on the Block-II variant seeks to increase the accuracy of the missile by enabling it to select the required target from among other, smaller targets.[113, 117] Following the tests in the first half of 2009, this variant is ready for induction into the army.[117]
India and Russia have also agreed to develop a hypersonic version of the BrahMos, termed BrahMos-II, by 2015.[118] This version will be based on a scramjet engine.[118] Reports in May 2008 also stated that the DRDO is developing a hypersonic (i.e., with a speed of over Mach 5) missile that can also be used as a long-range cruise missile.[65] The project, termed the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV) project is being developed in collaboration with the Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI).[66]
India and Russia have announced plans to export the BrahMos to friendly "third countries" with mutual consent. In 2004, BrahMos Aerospace Ltd. had signed an agreement with Russia's main arms export agency—Rosoboronexport—to market the missile in the international market.[69] Production facilities for the BrahMos are being established in India and Russia; 20 Indian and 10 Russian companies are expected to participate in its manufacture.[68] About 14 countries have been identified by BrahMos Aerospace as potential buyers of the missile.[116]
Nirbhay
In July 2007, Indian defense scientists announced the proposed development of a new cruise missile system, the Nirbhay (Fearless). Nirbhay will be a 1,000 km-range subsonic cruise missile that can be deployed on multiple platforms.[70] A technology demonstrator is scheduled to be completed in early 2009. With its terrain-hugging capability, the missile would be able to avoid detection ground radar.[70]
K-15 (Sagarika)
In February 2008, India tested its K-15 submarine-launched ballistic missile from a submerged pontoon in the Bay of Bengal. This missile had been tested four times previously, although with very little publicity.[71] Subsequently, in November 2008, the K-15 was successfully tested from a land-based launcher.[120] The K-15 (previously called the Sagarika or "Oceanic") will be stationed on India's new nuclear-powered submarine, INS Arihant, which was launched for trials in July 2009.[111]
The K-15 is a two-stage missile that weighs about 7 tons and can carry nuclear warheads that weight up to 600 kg over a range of about 700 km.[71] [75] [120] The Sagarika program is believed to be driven by India's long-term goals to achieve a secure sea-based, second-strike nuclear capability.
Shourya
The 'Shourya' (Valor), is a land-version of the K-15 Sagarika submarine-launched ballistic missile, and can carry a warhead of over 500 kg across a range of 600 km and is meant to strengthen India's second-strike capability.[104] The missile was successfully tested in November 2008.[119] With the Shourya, Indian defense planners aim to achieve increased survivability of the country's nuclear arsenal. In this context, the Shourya is a solid-propellant, canister-based missile, which can be located in underground silos and could conceivably replace the liquid-propelled Prithvi missiles which have a maximum range of 350 km.[105]
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)
The Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has developed two UAVs, Lakshya and Nishant. According to news reports in February 2009, the Nishant is expected to be inducted into the Indian Army very soon.[121] An upgraded version of the Lakshya successfully completed its test flight in September 2008.[122]
The DRDO is also developing a medium-altitude, and long-endurance UAV, Rustom, which is slated to be completed by 2011.[109] The Rustom will have a range of 300 km and a payload capacity of 200 kg.[121]
Custody/Command and Control
India does not maintain a constituted nuclear force on a heightened state of alert. The nuclear-capable missiles, non-nuclear warhead assemblies, and fissile cores are maintained in a de-alerted state by the individual armed services, the DRDO, and the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), respectively, with plans to reconstitute them rapidly during an emergency or national crisis.[81]
After much debate, deliberations, and delay, the Indian government has entrusted operational control of India's nuclear missile force to the Indian Army. Although the Indian Air Force deploys an undisclosed number of nuclear-capable bombers and is actively planning to upgrade the air leg of the dyad, it has lost the inter-organizational battle with the Army for custody of India's nuclear missile force.[82]
Although the nuclear-capable missiles and aircraft are under the control of individual armed services, India's consolidated nuclear force is administered by a tri-service Strategic Forces Command (SFC).[83] Due to the delay in the appointment of the proposed Chief of Defense Staff (CDS), who will ultimately head a joint tri-service command, the commander-in-chief of the SFC currently reports to the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee. Ultimately, however, the SFC will report to the CDS, who will act as the "single-point" military advisor to the Indian government and act as the interface between the civilian executive and the armed services.[84]
At the level of the civilian executive, India's Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) is responsible for the management of its nuclear forces and for making all decisions pertaining to the use of nuclear weapons. The NCA is a two-layered structure. It comprises a Political Council (PC) and an Executive Council (EC). The PC is chaired by the prime minister and is the "sole body which can authorize the use of nuclear weapons." The decisions of the PC are conveyed to the EC, headed by the prime minister's National Security Advisor, who then interfaces with the SFC to execute the political directives of the PC.[85]
Import Dependency and Export Controls
After four decades of investments in its aerospace sector, India has succeeded in achieving a relatively high-degree of autonomy in the development, engineering, and manufacture of first-generation ballistic missiles. As a result, international "technology-denial" regimes can at best delay and add to the opportunity cost of India's ballistic missile programs. However, such regimes cannot disrupt them in the long term.
With the help of Western European and North American aerospace companies in the late 1960s and 1970s, the Indian government created an elaborate infrastructure for the development and manufacture of solid and liquid propellants, composites, structural materials, navigation, avionics, flight control, launch support equipment, computers, and software needed for civilian satellite launch vehicles. At about the same time, the Indian government also began creating an infrastructure for designing, developing, testing, and building guided missiles. This included "aerodynamic, structural, and environmental test facilities, liquid- and solid-propulsion test facilities, fabrication and engineering facilities, control, guidance, rubber, and computer facilities." [86]
After the launch of the IGMDP in 1983, the DRDO further expanded and refurbished these facilities, and gained competence in the areas of solid propellants, composites, and advanced metallurgy. In 1987, India's Defense Research and Development Laboratory inaugurated a new state-of-the-art facility for designing and building modern missiles at Imarat Kancha near Hyderabad. The new facility was named Research Center Imarat (RCI). In addition, India has built a dedicated test range on its east coast in Orissa (Chandipur-On-Sea) to test "long-range missiles, air defense missiles, high 'G' maneuverable missiles, weapon systems delivered by aircraft, and multi-target weapon systems." Range tracking and acquisition radars and some of the support equipment for this test range were imported from the United States and Russia in the 1980s and 1990s.[88]
Despite its emergence as a potential "second-tier" supplier state, India is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). New Delhi rejects participation in the MTCR on grounds that India is a victim of such technology-denial regimes, that such regimes are insensitive to India's national security needs, and they interfere with the peaceful uses of space technology. In the past, senior Indian defense officials such as Sivathanu Pillai and Dr. Abdul Kalam have expressed the view that Indian missile programs, both strategic and tactical, are not only aimed at providing the Indian military with weapon systems, but also to generate exports.[92] In 1994, the Indian defense ministry's Department of Defense Production and Supplies included the Prithvi in its catalogue of defense items available for export. Although no Prithvi exports have occurred to date, Indian defense officials have suggested that India may sell some of the missile's subsystems in the international market.[93] Indian and Russian officials have publicly expressed their intent to export the BrahMos/PJ-10 cruise missile to friendly "third countries" with mutual consent.[94]
But since the late 1990s, especially after the nuclear tests in May 1998 and the subsequent strategic dialogue with the United States, the Indian government has apparently resolved the internal debate on exports in favor of robust export controls on strategic nuclear, missile, and related dual-use goods and technologies.[95] However, the 2002 indictment of the Indian company NEC Engineers Private, Limited, for illegally exporting material and equipment that could be used in the manufacture of solid propellants for missiles to Iraq has raised doubts about the efficacy with which Indian export control regulations and laws are policed in practice
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